Socialized By Cinema

I can’t remember the last time I was at a loss for making a prediction in so many categories. And I gotta tell you guys, I’m just as excited about it as I am frustrated by it.

As someone who gears up for this race in the early fall every year, I take pride in following the precursors and my ability to read the tea leaves to predict what’s going to win on Oscar night – and I can’t help feeling like I fall short when I miss the mark. This year, I’m proceeding with my predictions (for the fourteenth time, FYI) with more than caution. I truthfully do not know who is going to win Best Actor. To say that the supporting acting categories are prime for an upset would suggest that there is a consensus frontrunner in each of those categories to be upset. That’s simply not the case.

However, as a fan of these awards, what they intend to stand for, and what they signify for years to come, I’m full of intrigue wondering what’s going to happen on Sunday night. I feel like a seven-year-old on Christmas Eve not knowing what’ll be under the tree when I wake up. As always, I have opinions – strong ones, naturally – but I see a justifiable narrative for pretty much everyone in each of these categories to win.

This year, the Oscars don’t feel like the formality of handing a trophy to the months-long consensus pick. They feel like an event where the Academy is actively supporting the work of their peers and acknowledging it with a symbol of cinematic greatness. This is what I want the Oscars to be every year.

As usual, I’ll walk you through the eight major categories in this write-up – predicting a winner, discussing the state of the race, and listing out how my preferential ballot would look if I were an Academy voter.

Best Picture

Predicted Winner: One Battle After Another

Could it really be that simple? Nearly every Hollywood guild – in an unprecedented unified fashion – has named PTA’s One Battle After Another their pick of the year. It missed on the Actor Awards (formerly SAG) Ensemble win, but it has pretty much everything else. BAFTA, ACE, CCA, WGA, DGA, PGA, ASC, Golden Globes…you name it, One Battle probably won it.

And, in my opinion, it deserves it. OBAA is the best movie of the year, and since September, audiences, critics, and filmmaking professionals have all pretty much agreed.

But…something’s in the air.

Sinners is having a moment. It’s hard to quantify it – I’ll leave it to Academy members’ preferential ballots to do that – but it feels like Parasite. It feels like CODA. Now, granted, CODA saw voters running away from something – a snooty, slow-paced, perceived bit of Oscar bait, while Parasite‘s victory felt like an embrace (let’s face it, no one hated 1917, and if they did, they’re wrong).

Motivations aside, the results were the same – the PGA, DGA, and “expected” Best Picture winner fell short, while the well-made crowd-pleaser took home the ultimate prize at the end of the night and the awards season.

I’m going to stick with my gut and say One Battle‘s road to Oscar night is indicative not of contentment with its title of best movie of the year, but celebration of it. People love PTA. People love Leo. People love One Battle After Another.

When we look back on previous surprise wins, there’s something we can point to that, in hindsight, explained it. La La Land not getting nominated at SAG, The Revenant or The Power of the Dog missing out on PGA, or 1917 not getting nominated for Best Editing, for example. One Battle didn’t miss any necessary precursor nominations or wins here. It missed out on nominations in just three Academy branches – visual effects, costumes, and makeup – but got a nomination in every other sect of the Academy it was eligible to receive one in. Make no mistake – even if One Battle falls short to Sinners, it won’t be because it’s unloved, but rather that Sinners is just loved more.

And truth be told…I don’t think it is by this Academy. But, if it is, I won’t be shocked.

As for my vote, my #1 and #2 are duking it out. If Sinners does take home the gold, I won’t be heartbroken. But it’s so rare when your favorite movie of the year actually pulls out Best Picture. This year, I’m hoping it does.

Quickly touching on the other nominees, Hamnet is the “running in third” contender this year, and I think if its beginning and ending were as strong as its middle, we’d be having another conversation. Marty‘s lost its steam, Sentimental Value hasn’t resonated with precursor voters, and whatever love Frankenstein has will be realized in the craft categories. F1 and Bugonia are fun watches, but their inclusion in the category of Best Picture is inessential. Train Dreams and The Secret Agent lack a wide appeal, and I struggle to see a world where they make the cut if the Academy were to revert back to a list of five or even eight nominees in this category in place of the mandated ten.

AJ’s Rankings

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. Bugonia
5. F1
6. Sentimental Value
7. Hamnet
8. Train Dreams
9. Frankenstein
10. The Secret Agent

Should Have Been Nominated

Weapons, Wake Up Dead Man, Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Director

Predicted Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

As I typed out my prediction of PTA, all I could hear in my head was the pause before Spike Lee said “Bong Joon-Ho!” as the Parasite helmer was named Best Director over presumed winner Sam Mendes.

Sam Mendes already had an Oscar. PTA doesn’t have one yet. And while he assuredly won’t go home empty-handed on Sunday regardless of how this category goes (stay tuned for Best Adapted Screenplay), it’s not unlike the Academy to hand out multiple awards to a filmmaker on their big night (see The Daniels winning three Oscars for Everything Everywhere All at Once and Sean Baker winning four for Anora just last year).

But…the Sinners hype is real, and if it’s strong enough, you’ll hear Ryan Coogler’s name called on Sunday.

Funnily enough, I’d cast my vote for Coogler. My issues with his movie lie in his script – my admiration for it comes from his directing. If he does take this one home, I’d expect Best Picture to follow. The Academy actually hasn’t done a Best Picture/Best Director split where the Best Picture winner was nominated in Best Director since 2016. Again, it’s well within the realm of possibility, but I don’t expect that streak to be broken tonight.

Zhao’s talents shine in the heart of Hamnet, but the scenes without our title character don’t set her up for success. Safdie has been facing some publicity woes as of late, and Trier’s work is probably too subdued to wow this field of voters.

AJ’s Rankings

1. Coogler, Sinners
2. Anderson, One Battle After Another
3. Safdie, Marty Supreme
4. Zhao, Hamnet
5. Trier, Sentimental Value

Should Have Been Nominated

Bentley, Train Dreams; The Philippous, Bring Her Back; Polinger, The Plague

Best Actress

Predicted Winner: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

I won’t waste too much of your time on this one. Buckley’s win is the only acting win I’m certain of tonight. And while my vote would go to Renate Reinsve for her anchoring work in Sentimental Value, I’m not mad at the idea of Buckley having an Oscar on her mantle.

AJ’s Rankings

1. Renata Reinsve, Sentimental Value
2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
3. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
4. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
5. Emma Stone, Bugonia

Should Have Been Nominated

Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love

Best Actor

Predicted Winner: Timothée Chalamet

Hoo boy. Here we go.

Everybody just assumes that Michael B. Jordan is winning this award now. Jordan is a fine actor, and he gave a great speech at the Actor Awards. His win at that ceremony is also contributing the perceived Sinners wave that’s messing with every awards predictor’s head right now.

Jordan could win – he’s got the Actor Award. Timmy could win – he’s got the Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globe, and was the perceived frontrunner for months. Wagner could win – he also got a Golden Globe. Ethan could win – he’s a long-overdue actor, and if Academy voters actually watched Blue Moon, they’d see how deserving he’d be for this specific role. And honestly, Leo could win – while he’s been largely written off, I’m letting the support that One Battle has, alongside his numerous appearances on anonymous voters’ ballots, sway me into thinking he has a chance.

Make no mistake: this is the most unsure I have ever been in predicting a winner in a major category in my fourteen years of making Oscar predictions – because it’s not like it’s Timmy or Michael. It’s Timmy or Michael, or Wagner, or Leo, and a real chance of Ethan.

I’m sticking with the Timmy prediction because while he’s off-putting to some, I also think there’s respect for his work, as evidenced by his own SAG win last year for A Complete Unknown. This man’s given us Dune. Call Me By Your Name. Don’t Look Up. He acted in eight Best Picture nominees before turning 30. The Academy already sees greatness in his work. The other reason I’m sticking with him is because if it’s not him, who is it? Maybe it’s simple – Jordan surged at the right time and will take it home. But something in me says we’re in for a real surprise when this envelope’s contents are revealed.

AJ’s Rankings

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
3. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Should Have Been Nominated

Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams; Nicolas Cage, The Surfer; Alfie Williams, 28 Years Later

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Winner: Amy Madigan, Weapons

I see three legitimate paths to victory in this category.

Path one is Jamie Lee Curtis’s path. A career spanning decades with no industry recognition, she put on a wig, took a big swing, stole the movie, and gets an Oscar for this effort and all the works that came before it. If this is the narrative of the night, the win goes to Amy Madigan. Madigan won the Actor and the CCA for her work in Weapons.

Path two is Da’Vine Joy Randolph’s path. A steadily working actress who isn’t a household name to most, but quietly grounds her film channeling motherhood, loss, and wisdom. If this is the narrative of the night, the win goes to Wunmi Mosaku. Mosaku won the BAFTA for her work in Sinners.

Path three is Ariana DeBose’s path, or as I like to call it, the “welcome to the club” path. A younger, new-to-the-scene actress who brings unexpected ferocity and demands captivation with her on-screen work. If this is the narrative of the night, the win goes to Teyana Taylor. Taylor won the Golden Globe for her work in One Battle After Another, and was considered the early frontrunner in the category.

I see Madigan’s Actor Award win not as what moves the sail, but rather an indication of where the wind was already blowing. While her victory would be unique given the contents of her film, this would be the only chance fans of Weapons have to award the movie. Younger genre fans will vote for her to endorse her performance. Older, more reserved voters will vote for her to salute her career.

My money’s on Madigan. But again – and I hate to keep saying this – don’t count anybody out here, especially anyone from a movie that isn’t Sentimental Value.

AJ’s Rankings

1. Amy Madigan, Weapons
2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
4. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
5. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Should Have Been Nominated

Oona Chaplin, Avatar: Fire and Ash; Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good, Odessa A’zion, Marty Supreme; Chase Infiniti (yep, she should’ve been here for Supporting), One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Winner: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

I actually typed in Stellan’s name this morning on my own prediction sheet, and then immediately switched it back to Sean Penn. It’s been a while since we’ve had as repulsive a character be awarded for an Oscar, but the precedent exists. J.K. Simmons, Javier Bardem, Christoph Waltz, and Heath Ledger all have Oscars to show for it.

The reason why I almost switched to Stellan was because of the trend we’ve seen in this category in the last five years or so. The narrative has largely been “Awww! We really like you (Troy Kotsur/Ke Huy Quan/RDJ/Kieran Culkin)!!! Here’s an Oscar!”

And while I thought Skarsgård’s win would fit that narrative, I remembered there’s someone else in his category with that exact same narrative – and that’s the surging Delroy Lindo for Sinners. I think any one of these three men could win on Sunday. Heck, del Tor or Jacob Freakin’ Elordi could win!

But when I narrow it down to our likely winners, I think those judging on what the award means outside of the art are likely to split their votes between these two vets. I think those judging on merit are going to unite on Sean Penn, whose work was the best here. SAG and the BAFTAs agreed.

AJ’s Rankings

1. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
3. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
4. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Should Have Been Nominated

Jacobi Jupe, Hamnet; Miles Caton, Sinners, John Carroll Lynch, Sorry, Baby; Jonah Wren Phillips, Bring Her Back; Kenny Rasmussen and/or Kayo Martin, The Plague

Side Note: The snubs above are just more proof that the Academy needs a Best Child Performance Oscar.

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Winner: Sinners

Like Best Actress, these screenplay winners are written in stone. Ryan Coogler will be walking away with at least one Oscar on Sunday.

My second watch of Sinners made me realize I love pretty much everything about the film except for its screenplay. It’s derivative of other movies in its genre (one in particular that this specific prognosticator is a big fan of), the ending was flawed, and I feel like the characters needed some work. Problem is, I don’t think this is a terribly strong category this year, which made me incredibly bummed when Weapons wasn’t announced on nomination morning.

So, I guess I’d throw my own vote to Blue Moon? I guess? I know it’s a talky, almost play-like script, but the fact that I was so engrossed in it despite that makes me appreciate it even more.

Did I mention that Weapons should’ve been here?

AJ’s Rankings

1. Blue Moon
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sentimental Value
4. Sinners
5. It Was Just an Accident

Should Have Been Nominated

Weapons, Twinless, Bring Her Back, The Surfer, Together

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Winner: One Battle After Another

Easy win for PTA here. I feel bad for the writers’ branch of The Academy. They really had to stretch to fill out this list with five nominees this year.

AJ’s Rankings

1. One Battle After Another
2. Bugonia
3. Frankenstein
4. Train Dreams
5. Hamnet

Should Have Been Nominated

The Housemaid, Wake Up Dead Man

And now, the rest of my predictions & preferences:

Best Casting

Will Win: Sinners
Should Win: Marty Supreme

Best Cinematography

Will Win: One Battle After Another
Should Win: Train Dreams

Best Costume Design

Will Win: Frankenstein
Should Win: Hamnet

Best Film Editing

Will Win: One Battle After Another
Should Win: Marty Supreme

Best Makeup

Will Win: Frankenstein
Should Win: Frankenstein

Best Production Design

Wil Win: Frankenstein
Should Win: Frankensteint

Best Song

Will Win: Golden, KPop Demon Hunters
Should Win: Golden, KPop Demon Hunters

Best Score

Will Win: Sinners
Should Win: Sinners

Best Sound

Will Win: F1
Should Win: Sinners

Best Visual Effects

Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Should Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Animated Feature

Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters
Should Win: Zootopia 2

Best International Film

Will Win: Sentimental Value
Should Win: It Was Just an Accident

Tallied Predictions by Film

One Battle After Another: 6 Wins out of 13 Nominations
Sinners: 3 Wins out of 16 Nominations
Frankenstein: 3 Wins out of 9 Nominations
KPop Demon Hunters: 2 Wins out of 2 Nominations
Marty Supreme: 1 Win out of 9 Nominations
Sentimental Value: 1 Win out of 9 Nominations
Hamnet: 1 Win out of 9 Nominations
F1: 1 Win out of 4 Nominations
Avatar: 1 Win out of 2 Nominations
Weapons: 1 Win out of 1 Nomination

On Sunday, the cast and crew of Anora will probably be singing “tonight this could be the greatest night of our lives” as they get ready for the Academy Awards. A leading contender in multiple categories, Anora reclaimed its status as Oscar frontrunner from emerging contenders like Conclave, The Brutalist, and Emilia Pérez earlier in February after a strong showing at the DGA, PGA, and WGA.

This momentum follows one of the shakiest and most controversy-filled awards seasons I’ve seen in my decade-plus of ardent Oscars coverage. I could create a two-column matching quiz with titles like Anora, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, and The Brutalist on one side and terms like “intimacy coordinator,” “racist tweets,” “blackface,” and “AI” on the other.

Although we went into the final weeks of this year’s awards season with so many of these results up in the air, the other major awards ceremonies ended up nearly solidifying all but one or two of the eight major categories. There are usually a couple of shakeups on Oscar night, however – let’s see where they might appear as the messiest Oscars race comes to an end on Sunday.

Best Picture

Predicted Winner: Anora

Sean Baker’s Anora is sporting a Critic’s Choice Award win for Best Picture, alongside top prizes at the Producers’, Writers’, and Directors’ Guild of America awards. Does this mean it’s winning Best Picture? No. But it means it’s statistically unlikely to lose. The last (and only) movie to win these three guild awards and not go on to win Best Picture was Crash in 2005.

Anora isn’t my favorite of the bunch this year – I’m more partial to Baker’s Red Rocket and The Florida Project. But I came to the realization that it’s probably a me thing, and while I did find the film to be very good, I left with a sense of sadness that one could argue Baker had intended me to leave with.

Barely standing in Anora‘s way are Conclave and Emilia Pérez. Conclave‘s win at BAFTA for Best Picture and at SAG for Best Ensemble suggest support from the Academy’s international cohort and acting branch – both of which make up a hefty chunk of voters. The irony of Conclave‘s win would not be lost on me – a dying Pope, a politically-charged election thriller, and a movie about a rotating group of frontrunners vying for a prestigious title who keep having their chances undercut.

I would have bet on Emilia Pérez pre-KSG Twitter fiasco. It’s not unlike The Academy to double down on what they want to vote for – be it a condescending message that they get to tell us what to like, or a misinformed attempt to recognize what they think we do. On its own, Emilia Pérez – I thought – was pretty good, but both its immense praise by industry experts and its eventual hatred by film buffs have both been unwarranted (in my humble opinion).

That leaves a few crowd-pleasing sensations (Dune: Part Two, Wicked, A Complete Unknown), an international darling (I’m Still Here), a landmark body-horror inclusion (The Substance), an intimate yet under-seen entry (Nickel Boys), and a 3.5-hour epic about an immigrant architect (The Brutalist). Of those, I think The Brutalist is the only one with real potential to upset, as it at least has a couple of Golden Globe wins under its belt (not like that matters), as well as commanding industry respect for its technicals and ambition. I don’t think the Oscars are that desperate for ratings to hand the award to Wicked, and Dune: Part Two clearly isn’t getting the respect it deserved.

AJ’s Rankings (AKA my personal preferences) 

1. The Brutalist
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Wicked
4. Emilia Pérez
5. Conclave
6. Anora
7. Nickel Boys
8. I’m Still Here
9. A Complete Unknown
10. The Substance

Should Have Been Nominated: Challengers, Didi, Inside Out 2

Best Director

Predicted Winner: Sean Baker, Anora

I have a special place in my heart for movies from my childhood, so seeing the kid who played Alan Tracy in the 2004 action flick Thunderbirds go on to win an Oscar for The Brutalist 20 years later would be unreal. And while I don’t think the relatively young Brady Corbet is completely out of the running for this award, it seems my hopes of an Anora/Brutalist Picture/Director split aren’t likely to happen.

Brady’s BAFTA win in this category could signify the international branch of The Academy will support him, but given the wave of love that seems to be coming Anora’s way, I’ll ride it and predict Baker will win. As someone who wanted him to be included in this category (and preferably win it) seven years ago for The Florida Project, I can’t say I’d be heartbroken if a dedicated filmmaker like Baker won this prize. But for this year, I was just too captivated by what Brady pulled off with The Brutalist to not root for him.

I can’t really see anyone else winning here…but maybe that’s partly because I don’t want anyone else to.

AJ’s Rankings

1. Corbet, The Brutalist
2. Baker, Anora
3. Fargeat, The Substance
4. Audiard, Emilia Pérez
5. Mangold, A Complete Unknown

Should Have Been Nominated: Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two; Ross, Nickel Boys; West, MaXXXine; Berger, Conclave; Mollner, Strange Darling

Best Actor

Predicted Winner: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

I always love a poetic win at the Oscars. Timothée Chalamet winning Best Actor against Adrien Brody – a previous surprise winner who beat out four prior winners to become the youngest Best Actor Winner ever – and taking the award (and that record) away from him would be poetic.

And it’s certainly possible. SAG wins can be flukey, but going into Oscar night, it’s a win on my resume I’d rather have than not. Brody’s resume, however, is nothing to slouch at – he’s won the BAFTA, Golden Globe, and Critics’ Choice Award for his committed work in The Brutalist.

Unlike Best Actress, it’s an uphill battle for a rising Hollywood star to win Best Actor. Austin Butler didn’t bear Brendan Fraser a couple of years ago, and Andrew Garfield didn’t beat Will Smith a couple of years before that. While there’s always an exception to the rule, I’m sticking with Brody.

Domingo and Finnes are fine actors who I’m happy were included here, and Sebastian Stan’s performance as Trump shockingly got him included here. It was good work – but truthfully, it was work I didn’t think would be recognized.

AJ’s Rankings

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
4. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
5. Ralph Finnes, Conclave

Should Have Been Nominated: Keith Kupferer, Ghostlight; Gabrielle Labelle, Saturday Night

Best Actress

Predicted Winner: Mikey Madison, Anora

This one’s the biggest coin toss of the night for me, and for now, I’m slightly leaning towards Mikey’s work as the title character in Anora.

Best Actress is usually more favorable to the rising star, awarding the likes of Jennifer Lawrence, Brie Larson, and Emma Stone in the past decade or so while all were in their 20s. Demi, however, is the comeback performance from a Hollywood starlet. Her picture was divisive – her performance was not. She’s picked up a SAG, Golden Globe, and Critics’ Choice win. Mikey, to her credit, scored at BAFTA and the Independent Spirit Awards. There’s also suspicion of a potential upset from I’m Still Here‘s Fernanda Torres – she also won a Golden Globe, and the love for her Best Picture-nominated film may carry her to a win.

My vote would have likely gone to Demi, but I see all of these women as deserving of the win in their own right. I can’t say I’d be thrown or upset if any of their names were called (well, expect for one of them).

AJ’s Rankings

1. Demi Moore, The Substance
2. Mikey Madison, Anora
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
4. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
5. Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Pérez

Should Have Been Nominated: Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl; Lily-Rose Depp, Nosferatu

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

I’m firmly in the “he’s just doing his thing from Succession” camp, but it’s hard to deny Kieran Culkin’s magnetism on screen. And since no real challenger has emerged, I think his win is the safest acting prediction of the night.

I do wish Jeremy Strong was a more serious contender to his former Succession costar, but like Sebastian Stan, he’s honestly lucky to have been nominated for The Apprentice. Burisov, Norton, and Pearce all give nomination-worthy performances, but their screen time on Oscar night will be relegated to a reaction in a box when Culkin wins.

AJ’s Rankings

1. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
3. Kieran Culkin, Succession A Real Pain
4. Yura Borisov, Anora
5. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

Should Have Been Nominated: Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing; Josh O’Conner, Challengers; Gabrielle Labelle, Snack Shack; Jesse Plemons, Civil War

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Pérez

Any hope that Zoe’s competitors may have had that she’d go down with the sinking ship of Emilia Pérez seems to be dashed. Following the backlash against the movie and its lead, Zoe still went on to claim crucial victories from BAFTA and SAG, indicating she remains in the frontrunner spot that she’s had since last fall.

I do think this category is more likely to offer a surprise than Supporting Actor, with various circles championing an Ariana, Monica, and even Isabella win. However, it would have been so easy for Zoe to be swept up in the controversy of her film, but seeing how there’s no indications of that happening, the Oscar is as good as hers.

My vote would in this category easily would have gone to Monica Barbaro for A Complete Unknown. Her mix of charm and frustration opposite Chalamet was the highlight of the film for me.

AJ’s Rankings

1. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
2. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Pérez
3. Ariana Grande, Wicked
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Should Have Been Nominated: Joan Chen, Didi

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Winner: A Real Pain

I’ve missed the mark on this prediction the past couple of years, and I might miss again this time betting against Anora. However, its BAFTA and Independent Spirit Award wins have me thinking it’s the winner. It’s talkier than Anora, and Baker’s film are more feats of editing, acting, and directing than screenwriting in my eyes. And since A Real Pain missed out on a Best Picture nomination, the Academy may want to show it a bit of extra love here.

Still, Anora‘s chances are very much alive here, and I know there are plenty of voters who are passionate about the other nominees here. So while any nominee could take this one, I’m gonna risk my money on A Real Pain.

AJ’s Rankings

1. The Brutalist
2. Anora
3. A Real Pain
4. September 5
5. The Substance

Should Have Been Nominated: Challengers, Snack Shack, Saturday Night, Strange Darling

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Winner: Conclave

Culkin’s win might be the safest acting win of the night, but I think the safest overall win for a major category is Conclave in Adapted Screenplay. It’s the most structured, dialogue-driven, and intentionally perpetual of the bunch. Every scene is with purpose, and from a construction standpoint, I don’t see anything besting it here.

Nickel Boys and Sing Sing were more free-flowing achievements of acting and directing. Candidly, I don’t know how warranted their inclusion in this category is. Emilia Pérez isn’t winning this award, and A Complete Unknown left me with more questions than answers. Conclave is the easiest, safest, and correct choice.

AJ’s Rankings

1. Conclave
2. Sing Sing
3. Emilia Pérez
4. Nickel Boys
5. A Complete Unknown

Should Have Been Nominated: Hit Man, Wicked, Inside Out 2

And now, the rest of my predictions & preferences.

Best Cinematography

Will Win: The Brutalist
Should Win: Dune: Part Two

Best Costume Design

Will Win: Wicked
Should Win: Gladiator II

Best Film Editing

Will Win: Conclave
Should Win: The Brutalist

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Will Win: The Substance
Should Win: The Substance

Best Production Design

Will Win: Wicked
Should Win: Dune: Part Two

Best Sound

Will Win: Dune: Part Two
Should Win: Dune: Part Two

Best Visual Effects

Will Win: Dune: Part Two
Should Win: Dune: Part Two

Best Animated Feature

Will Win: The Wild Robot
Should Win: Inside Out 2

Best International Film

Will Win: I’m Still Here
Should Win: Emilia Pérez

Best Score

Will Win: The Brutalist
Should Win: The Brutalist

Best Song

Will Win: “The Journey,” The Six Triple Eight
Should Win: “Mi Camino,” Emilia Pérez

Tallied Predictions

The Brutalist: 3 wins out of 10 nominations
Anora: 3 wins out of 6 nominations
Wicked: 2 wins out of 10 nominations
Conclave: 2 wins out of 8 nominations
Dune: Part Two: 2 wins out of 5 nominations
A Real Pain: 2 wins out of 2 nominations
Emilia Pérez: 1 win out of 13 nominations
The Substance: 1 win out of 5 nominations
The Wild Robot: 1 win out of 3 nominations
I’m Still Here: 1 win out of 3 nominations
The Six Triple Eight: 1 win out of 1 nomination