Author: Austin Beltis

On Sunday, the cast and crew of Anora will probably be singing “tonight this could be the greatest night of our lives” as they get ready for the Academy Awards. A leading contender in multiple categories, Anora reclaimed its status as Oscar frontrunner from emerging contenders like Conclave, The Brutalist, and Emilia Pérez earlier in February after a strong showing at the DGA, PGA, and WGA.

This momentum follows one of the shakiest and most controversy-filled awards seasons I’ve seen in my decade-plus of ardent Oscars coverage. I could create a two-column matching quiz with titles like Anora, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, and The Brutalist on one side and terms like “intimacy coordinator,” “racist tweets,” “blackface,” and “AI” on the other.

Although we went into the final weeks of this year’s awards season with so many of these results up in the air, the other major awards ceremonies ended up nearly solidifying all but one or two of the eight major categories. There are usually a couple of shakeups on Oscar night, however – let’s see where they might appear as the messiest Oscars race comes to an end on Sunday.

Best Picture

Predicted Winner: Anora

Sean Baker’s Anora is sporting a Critic’s Choice Award win for Best Picture, alongside top prizes at the Producers’, Writers’, and Directors’ Guild of America awards. Does this mean it’s winning Best Picture? No. But it means it’s statistically unlikely to lose. The last (and only) movie to win these three guild awards and not go on to win Best Picture was Crash in 2005.

Anora isn’t my favorite of the bunch this year – I’m more partial to Baker’s Red Rocket and The Florida Project. But I came to the realization that it’s probably a me thing, and while I did find the film to be very good, I left with a sense of sadness that one could argue Baker had intended me to leave with.

Barely standing in Anora‘s way are Conclave and Emilia Pérez. Conclave‘s win at BAFTA for Best Picture and at SAG for Best Ensemble suggest support from the Academy’s international cohort and acting branch – both of which make up a hefty chunk of voters. The irony of Conclave‘s win would not be lost on me – a dying Pope, a politically-charged election thriller, and a movie about a rotating group of frontrunners vying for a prestigious title who keep having their chances undercut.

I would have bet on Emilia Pérez pre-KSG Twitter fiasco. It’s not unlike The Academy to double down on what they want to vote for – be it a condescending message that they get to tell us what to like, or a misinformed attempt to recognize what they think we do. On its own, Emilia Pérez – I thought – was pretty good, but both its immense praise by industry experts and its eventual hatred by film buffs have both been unwarranted (in my humble opinion).

That leaves a few crowd-pleasing sensations (Dune: Part Two, Wicked, A Complete Unknown), an international darling (I’m Still Here), a landmark body-horror inclusion (The Substance), an intimate yet under-seen entry (Nickel Boys), and a 3.5-hour epic about an immigrant architect (The Brutalist). Of those, I think The Brutalist is the only one with real potential to upset, as it at least has a couple of Golden Globe wins under its belt (not like that matters), as well as commanding industry respect for its technicals and ambition. I don’t think the Oscars are that desperate for ratings to hand the award to Wicked, and Dune: Part Two clearly isn’t getting the respect it deserved.

AJ’s Rankings (AKA my personal preferences) 

1. The Brutalist
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Wicked
4. Emilia Pérez
5. Conclave
6. Anora
7. Nickel Boys
8. I’m Still Here
9. A Complete Unknown
10. The Substance

Should Have Been Nominated: Challengers, Didi, Inside Out 2

Best Director

Predicted Winner: Sean Baker, Anora

I have a special place in my heart for movies from my childhood, so seeing the kid who played Alan Tracy in the 2004 action flick Thunderbirds go on to win an Oscar for The Brutalist 20 years later would be unreal. And while I don’t think the relatively young Brady Corbet is completely out of the running for this award, it seems my hopes of an Anora/Brutalist Picture/Director split aren’t likely to happen.

Brady’s BAFTA win in this category could signify the international branch of The Academy will support him, but given the wave of love that seems to be coming Anora’s way, I’ll ride it and predict Baker will win. As someone who wanted him to be included in this category (and preferably win it) seven years ago for The Florida Project, I can’t say I’d be heartbroken if a dedicated filmmaker like Baker won this prize. But for this year, I was just too captivated by what Brady pulled off with The Brutalist to not root for him.

I can’t really see anyone else winning here…but maybe that’s partly because I don’t want anyone else to.

AJ’s Rankings

1. Corbet, The Brutalist
2. Baker, Anora
3. Fargeat, The Substance
4. Audiard, Emilia Pérez
5. Mangold, A Complete Unknown

Should Have Been Nominated: Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two; Ross, Nickel Boys; West, MaXXXine; Berger, Conclave; Mollner, Strange Darling

Best Actor

Predicted Winner: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

I always love a poetic win at the Oscars. Timothée Chalamet winning Best Actor against Adrien Brody – a previous surprise winner who beat out four prior winners to become the youngest Best Actor Winner ever – and taking the award (and that record) away from him would be poetic.

And it’s certainly possible. SAG wins can be flukey, but going into Oscar night, it’s a win on my resume I’d rather have than not. Brody’s resume, however, is nothing to slouch at – he’s won the BAFTA, Golden Globe, and Critics’ Choice Award for his committed work in The Brutalist.

Unlike Best Actress, it’s an uphill battle for a rising Hollywood star to win Best Actor. Austin Butler didn’t bear Brendan Fraser a couple of years ago, and Andrew Garfield didn’t beat Will Smith a couple of years before that. While there’s always an exception to the rule, I’m sticking with Brody.

Domingo and Finnes are fine actors who I’m happy were included here, and Sebastian Stan’s performance as Trump shockingly got him included here. It was good work – but truthfully, it was work I didn’t think would be recognized.

AJ’s Rankings

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
4. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
5. Ralph Finnes, Conclave

Should Have Been Nominated: Keith Kupferer, Ghostlight; Gabrielle Labelle, Saturday Night

Best Actress

Predicted Winner: Mikey Madison, Anora

This one’s the biggest coin toss of the night for me, and for now, I’m slightly leaning towards Mikey’s work as the title character in Anora.

Best Actress is usually more favorable to the rising star, awarding the likes of Jennifer Lawrence, Brie Larson, and Emma Stone in the past decade or so while all were in their 20s. Demi, however, is the comeback performance from a Hollywood starlet. Her picture was divisive – her performance was not. She’s picked up a SAG, Golden Globe, and Critics’ Choice win. Mikey, to her credit, scored at BAFTA and the Independent Spirit Awards. There’s also suspicion of a potential upset from I’m Still Here‘s Fernanda Torres – she also won a Golden Globe, and the love for her Best Picture-nominated film may carry her to a win.

My vote would have likely gone to Demi, but I see all of these women as deserving of the win in their own right. I can’t say I’d be thrown or upset if any of their names were called (well, expect for one of them).

AJ’s Rankings

1. Demi Moore, The Substance
2. Mikey Madison, Anora
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
4. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
5. Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Pérez

Should Have Been Nominated: Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl; Lily-Rose Depp, Nosferatu

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

I’m firmly in the “he’s just doing his thing from Succession” camp, but it’s hard to deny Kieran Culkin’s magnetism on screen. And since no real challenger has emerged, I think his win is the safest acting prediction of the night.

I do wish Jeremy Strong was a more serious contender to his former Succession costar, but like Sebastian Stan, he’s honestly lucky to have been nominated for The Apprentice. Burisov, Norton, and Pearce all give nomination-worthy performances, but their screen time on Oscar night will be relegated to a reaction in a box when Culkin wins.

AJ’s Rankings

1. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
3. Kieran Culkin, Succession A Real Pain
4. Yura Borisov, Anora
5. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

Should Have Been Nominated: Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing; Josh O’Conner, Challengers; Gabrielle Labelle, Snack Shack; Jesse Plemons, Civil War

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Pérez

Any hope that Zoe’s competitors may have had that she’d go down with the sinking ship of Emilia Pérez seems to be dashed. Following the backlash against the movie and its lead, Zoe still went on to claim crucial victories from BAFTA and SAG, indicating she remains in the frontrunner spot that she’s had since last fall.

I do think this category is more likely to offer a surprise than Supporting Actor, with various circles championing an Ariana, Monica, and even Isabella win. However, it would have been so easy for Zoe to be swept up in the controversy of her film, but seeing how there’s no indications of that happening, the Oscar is as good as hers.

My vote would in this category easily would have gone to Monica Barbaro for A Complete Unknown. Her mix of charm and frustration opposite Chalamet was the highlight of the film for me.

AJ’s Rankings

1. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
2. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Pérez
3. Ariana Grande, Wicked
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Should Have Been Nominated: Joan Chen, Didi

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Winner: A Real Pain

I’ve missed the mark on this prediction the past couple of years, and I might miss again this time betting against Anora. However, its BAFTA and Independent Spirit Award wins have me thinking it’s the winner. It’s talkier than Anora, and Baker’s film are more feats of editing, acting, and directing than screenwriting in my eyes. And since A Real Pain missed out on a Best Picture nomination, the Academy may want to show it a bit of extra love here.

Still, Anora‘s chances are very much alive here, and I know there are plenty of voters who are passionate about the other nominees here. So while any nominee could take this one, I’m gonna risk my money on A Real Pain.

AJ’s Rankings

1. The Brutalist
2. Anora
3. A Real Pain
4. September 5
5. The Substance

Should Have Been Nominated: Challengers, Snack Shack, Saturday Night, Strange Darling

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Winner: Conclave

Culkin’s win might be the safest acting win of the night, but I think the safest overall win for a major category is Conclave in Adapted Screenplay. It’s the most structured, dialogue-driven, and intentionally perpetual of the bunch. Every scene is with purpose, and from a construction standpoint, I don’t see anything besting it here.

Nickel Boys and Sing Sing were more free-flowing achievements of acting and directing. Candidly, I don’t know how warranted their inclusion in this category is. Emilia Pérez isn’t winning this award, and A Complete Unknown left me with more questions than answers. Conclave is the easiest, safest, and correct choice.

AJ’s Rankings

1. Conclave
2. Sing Sing
3. Emilia Pérez
4. Nickel Boys
5. A Complete Unknown

Should Have Been Nominated: Hit Man, Wicked, Inside Out 2

And now, the rest of my predictions & preferences.

Best Cinematography

Will Win: The Brutalist
Should Win: Dune: Part Two

Best Costume Design

Will Win: Wicked
Should Win: Gladiator II

Best Film Editing

Will Win: Conclave
Should Win: The Brutalist

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Will Win: The Substance
Should Win: The Substance

Best Production Design

Will Win: Wicked
Should Win: Dune: Part Two

Best Sound

Will Win: Dune: Part Two
Should Win: Dune: Part Two

Best Visual Effects

Will Win: Dune: Part Two
Should Win: Dune: Part Two

Best Animated Feature

Will Win: The Wild Robot
Should Win: Inside Out 2

Best International Film

Will Win: I’m Still Here
Should Win: Emilia Pérez

Best Score

Will Win: The Brutalist
Should Win: The Brutalist

Best Song

Will Win: “The Journey,” The Six Triple Eight
Should Win: “Mi Camino,” Emilia Pérez

Tallied Predictions

The Brutalist: 3 wins out of 10 nominations
Anora: 3 wins out of 6 nominations
Wicked: 2 wins out of 10 nominations
Conclave: 2 wins out of 8 nominations
Dune: Part Two: 2 wins out of 5 nominations
A Real Pain: 2 wins out of 2 nominations
Emilia Pérez: 1 win out of 13 nominations
The Substance: 1 win out of 5 nominations
The Wild Robot: 1 win out of 3 nominations
I’m Still Here: 1 win out of 3 nominations
The Six Triple Eight: 1 win out of 1 nomination

Although Best Picture is the biggest lock I’ve seen in a decade, this weekend’s Oscars are toss-ups in several key categories – from Best Actor and Actress, to Best Editing and Cinematography.

Last year, I got nearly all of my predictions correct (save for an admittedly pot-stirring prediction of a Kristen Stewart win). This year, I expect my ballot to fare much worse. That’s for a couple of reasons.

First, the wins have been all over the place this year — and aside from EEAAO and The Daniels, no one has built any unopposed momentum in their respective categories. I expect many of these races to come down to the wire.

Second, this was one of the worst years I’ve seen for movies in a while. I feel like the debates over who should and will win are much less passionate for this year’s races compared to the past as, frankly, this is not the best that Hollywood’s had to offer in recent memory.

So, I’m heading into Sunday’s ceremony with a strange mix of excitement about what could happen and indifference over what will.

Here’s hoping 2023 will deliver a better slate of movies.

Oh well. On with the predictions!

Side Note: I recorded some Oscar predictions for my podcast, The Old Kids Movies on February 27th, and some of my predictions have changed since then. The predictions in this article reflect my most accurate predictions.

Side Side Note: This is my 11th prediction write-up! I thought it would be fun to see how I did in the last decade, so I included my win rate for each of these eight major categories in the last ten years. Collectively, I incorrectly predicted the winner 21 out of 80 times, giving my predictions an overall accuracy rate of 73.75%. Take that as you will!

Best Picture

Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

AJ’s Best Picture Winner Prediction Success Rate: 40%

The movie with butt plugs, dildos, and hot dog fingers is going to win Best Picture – and it’s not even close.

I wish Banshees had won the BAFTA or Top Gun won the PGA so I could offer a hot take and say one of them would win Best Picture. They didn’t.

Everything Everywhere has been an unstoppable force in this race. Seemingly, its only challenger is All Quiet on the Western Front – a technical jaw-dropper that won the BAFTA for Best Picture, but no other industry top prizes.

Those all went to Everything Everywhere. The DGA. The WGA. The PGA. The SAG.

It’s over.

I’ll just come out and say it. I liked Everything Everywhere, but it wasn’t in my Top 10 of the year, and it’s not my favorite of the nominees. I think it gets lost in its ambition, and while it’s an understatement to say this movie is an achievement, I didn’t find it to be as funny or coherent as many others seem did. If it wins for Editing and Directing, I’ll understand, but as a whole, I don’t think this was the best movie of these nominees – much less the year.

To me, this award belongs to Banshees, with Top Gun close behind.

Funnily enough, I didn’t love the last Martin McDonagh movie, nor the first Top Gun. But these movies are the two nominees I’ve seen more than once and loved both times. Banshees is a timeless tale that I know I’ll revisit throughout my life and appreciate with a new perspective based on when I watch. Top Gun saved theaters and was a thrill-ride of a spectacle. Keep making movies, Tom.

Now, let’s dive into the other nominees. Tár, All Quiet, and once-frontrunner The Fabelmans weren’t entirely for me, though I know they have their lovers. I think each could have benefitted from a more focused and tighter approach, but still have plenty to appreciate. Elvis was a trip, but despite its love in the craft categories, I don’t see it pulling out a win, as its only above-the-line awards potential is going solely to Austin Butler.

As much as I would love to see Avatar or Triangle of Sadness get the win here (both of which were in my top 10 of the year), they seem to be darlings of specific sects of the Academy (visual effects and the international cohort, respectively). There isn’t enough universal appeal in The Academy for these projects to get them high enough on enough voters’ preferential ballots.

Oh, and Women Talking was boring. They nominated the wrong female-driven ensemble this year.

AJ’s Rankings (AKA my personal preferences) 

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Triangle of Sadness
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once
6. Elvis
7. The Fabelmans
8. All Quiet on the Western Front
9. Tár
10. Women Talking

Should Have Been Nominated

RRR, The Northman, She Said

Best Director

Predicted Winner: The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

AJ’s Best Director Winner Prediction Success Rate: 70%

This is not the last time I’ll be predicting Everything Everywhere, and while I’m confident the Daniels will win, it’s one of my least secure EEAAO predictions of the night. Sentimentality for Spielberg might get him on the stage, but the Daniels’ work is so impressively bizarre that it’s hard to ignore the opportunity to reward the duo.

While EEAAO didn’t entirely do it for me, I fully acknowledge how easily this movie could have turned into a total mess – and the baseline fact that this movie wasn’t a total mess should be enough to give them the trophy.

My vote would go to Martin McDonagh, for sort of the opposite reason of why people seem to love Everything Everywhere. Both that and Banshees are utterly unbelievable premises, and while EEAAO embraces its absurdity, McDonagh effectively rejects it and makes Banshees so impeccably grounded that it never gets close to absurd in my eyes — although in theory, it should. To me, that’s more of an accomplishment.

AJ’s Rankings

1. McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
2. The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
4. Spielberg, The Fabelmans
5. Fields, Tár

Should Have Been Nominated

Rajamouli, RRR; Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick; Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Actress 

Predicted Winner: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

AJ’s Best Actress Winner Prediction Success Rate: 70%

Ya know? If Cate Blanchett hadn’t used her acceptance speech time to tell people not to vote for her, she’d win handily. That — in conjunction with Michelle Yeoh racking up key wins and building a growing base of cheerleaders for her — should result in yet another win for EEAAO.

But let’s be honest with ourselves for a moment — and not to take away anything from Michelle, but Cate Blanchett is literally in her own universe in this category. Her performance is arguably her best work, and if any objectivity existed in the Academy, she would win.

And she still might!

Speaking of objectivity, Andrea Riseborough also belongs on this list for To Leslie. Even though very few actually saw her movie, those who did — myself included — recognize how moving and effective her performance was.

As a Michelle Williams fan, I can’t say I was vibing with what she was doing in The Fabelmans, and I would have loved to have seen someone like Mia Goth sneak in here for Pearl — or even the young, scene-stealing Frankie Corrio from Aftersun.

As for Ana de Armas…I’m just stunned that Blonde is an Oscar nominee. Good performance, though.

AJ’s Rankings

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár
2. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
3. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. Ana de Armas, Blonde
5. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Should Have Been Nominated

Frankie Corrio, Aftersun; Mia Goth, Pearl; Margot Robbie, Babylon

Best Actor

Predicted Winner: Brendan Fraser, The Whale

AJ’s Best Actor Winner Prediction Success Rate: 80%

One of the most exciting aspects of this year’s race is just how up-in-the-air 3/4 of the acting races are — including Best Actor. Austin, Brendan, and Colin have all won major televised awards and have legitimate claims to the gold.

Many consider Austin to be the frontrunner, but I have my doubts as to his ability to rally the votes for a genuine breakout performance. Aside from a small role in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Butler was most known for his 10-episode stint on “Zoey 101.” Unlike Best Actress, there seems to be a connotation of having to “earn” Best Actor. Even when Eddie Redmayne beat Michael Keaton in 2015, Eddie was an established actor, having appeared prominently in Oscar-nominated movies like My Week with Marilyn and Les Mis.

Austin doesn’t really have that cred — and Brendan has a career and personal comeback story propelling him to potential victory.

However, reading some Oscar voters’ thoughts (and noticing that The Whale missed out on key Picture and Screenplay nominations), it seems like there’s some notable disdain for The Whale. This could hurt Brendan’s chances, but I still think he’ll get it. I’m also seeing some last-minute surge potential for Colin, but I don’t know if it’ll be enough — especially with Brendan’s SAG win and speech being fresh on voters’ minds.

In short, it’s a three-way tossup, and I’m slightly leaning Fraser.

Looking at the other nods, Living was a small film, and I see Bill’s nomination as more of a career tribute for a fine performance. Mescal was magnetic in Aftersun, but with no other nominations to the film’s name, this is likely The Academy’s way of acknowledging that this is only the beginning for the rising star.

AJ’s Rankings

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
2. Austin Butler, Elvis
3. Paul Mescal, Aftersun
4. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Bill Nighy, Living

Should Have Been Nominated

Eden Dambrine, Close; Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

Best Supporting Actress 

Predicted Winner: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

AJ’s Best Supporting Actress Winner Prediction Success Rate: 80%

Well, that was a nice break from predicting an Everything Everywhere All at Once win. Anyways, back to it.

I walked out of this movie a year ago with conflicted feelings about everything except Jamie Lee Curtis. I’ve been stumping for her Oscar win for 12 months and I refuse to stop this close to the finish line – especially with that SAG win in the bag.

This year’s race reminds me a lot of the 2015 Best Supporting Actor race, with wins all over the place but an expected win for Sylvester Stallone in Creed. The reason why? Stallone had won the Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globe. However, he ultimately lost to Mark Rylance, and the big indicator of that result was the fact that Stallone missed out on wins at the BAFTAs and the SAG.

This year, Angela Basset — unlike Sly — at least was nominated at those two industry awards, but she didn’t win. Prognosticators still list her as the frontrunner, but without those key wins from her peers (only critics’ circles), I fail to believe Basset will win an Oscar for a Marvel movie and limited screen time.

Stephanie Hsu is a welcomed addition to this list, and I commend Kerry’s grounded performance in Banshees for helping make the work more believable. I quite liked Hong Chau’s work in The Whale, but I don’t necessarily see it as one of the five best supporting female works of the year.

Ultimately, this win will come down to Angela, Jamie Lee, or Kerry. I lean Jamie Lee as a result of getting swept up in the the EEAAO love, but it’s anyone’s guess.

AJ’s Rankings

1. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Hong Chau, The Whale
5. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Should Have Been Nominated

Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness; Carey Mulligan, She Said

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

AJ’s Best Supporting Actor Winner Prediction Success Rate: 90%

The BAFTA loss is the only hiccup on Ke Huy’s road to redemption. I’m elated for this man and can’t wait to see what’s next in his career. His seamless transitions from one universe’s version of his character to the next with nothing but a snap of the neck and change of facial expression is essential to EEAAO’s success, and everything from his martial arts to his endearing tone in the film are wholly Oscar-worthy.

That said…I was ecstatic to see Barry Keoghan on the list of nominees, and was so proud of him for his victory at the BAFTAs. Any other year, he’d be my number one. For now, the nomination is his win.

Looking at who’s left on the list, Gleeson was overshadowed by his colleague in this same category, Hirsch shouldn’t be here, and while I’m glad his nomination resulted in me watching the under-seen Causeway, I don’t think Brian Tyree Henry needed to be here, either.

AJ’s Rankings

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
5. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

Should Have Been Nominated

Mark Rylance, Bones and All

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Winer: All Quiet on the Western Front

AJ’s Best Adapted Screenplay Winner Prediction Success Rate: 70%

This is a last-minute switch from my initial prediction of Women Talking.

Again, I don’t like Women Talking, and for a movie that’s so dialogue-driven, the screenplay needs to be awesome. I just don’t think it is. It’s still a strong contender to win, but the fizzling Women Talking support is causing me to doubt its chances.

Conversely, All Quiet has been picking up steam. It’s unlikely to win Best Picture, so this is its only chance to win an above-the-line award. I don’t think this screenplay is that strong, but then again, I think that about every screenplay in this category.

AJ’s Rankings

1. Glass Onion
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. All Quiet on the Western Front
4. Living
5. Women Talking

Should Have Been Nominated

The Whale, She Said, The Northman

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin

AJ’s Best Original Screenplay Winner Prediction Success Rate: 90%

This is a close one, and my prediction is partially based on me trying to will this win into existence.

I don’t think The Academy will let Banshees go home empty-handed, and this win is its best bet. It all comes down to whether voters will put more emphasis on “Original” or “Screenplay.” If it’s “Screenplay,” it’s Banshees for its humor, dialogue, tone, and consistency.

If voters lean into the “Original” aspect of the award, it’s tough to argue with EEAAO here. If the wave of love for Everything is strong enough, a win here could still happen.

Triangle of Sadness‘s nomination in this category brings me great joy, as its use of dialogue and characters is genius even if the themes of the movie aren’t entirely unique. I think The Fabelmans and Tár are the least likely to win this category, and that’s fine by me.

AJ’s Rankings

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Triangle of Sadness
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. The Fabelmans
5. Tár

Should Have Been Nominated

Barbarian, RRR

And now, the rest of my predictions & preferences.

Best Cinematography

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Costume Design

Will Win: Elvis
Should Win: Elvis

Best Film Editing

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Makeup

Will Win: The Whale
Should Win: The Batman

Best Production Design

Wil Win: Babylon 
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Song

Will Win: Naatu Naatu, RRR
Should Win: Hold My Hand, Top Gun: Maverick

Best Score

Will Win: Babylon
Should Win: Babylon

Best Sound

Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Visual Effects

Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Animated Feature

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Should Win: Turning Red

Best International Film

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: Close

Tallied Predictions

Everything Everywhere All At Once: 6 Wins out of 11 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front: 3 Wins out of 9 Nominations
Babylon: 2 Wins out of 3 Nominations
The Whale: 2 Wins out of 3 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin: 1 Win out of 9 Nominations
Elvis: 1 Win out of 8 Nominations 
Avatar: The Way of Water: 1 Win out of 4 Nominations
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio: 1 Win out of 1 Nomination
RRR: 1 Win out of 1 Nomination