On Sunday, the cast and crew of Anora will probably be singing “tonight this could be the greatest night of our lives” as they get ready for the Academy Awards. A leading contender in multiple categories, Anora reclaimed its status as Oscar frontrunner from emerging contenders like Conclave, The Brutalist, and Emilia Pérez earlier in February after a strong showing at the DGA, PGA, and WGA.
This momentum follows one of the shakiest and most controversy-filled awards seasons I’ve seen in my decade-plus of ardent Oscars coverage. I could create a two-column matching quiz with titles like Anora, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, and The Brutalist on one side and terms like “intimacy coordinator,” “racist tweets,” “blackface,” and “AI” on the other.
Although we went into the final weeks of this year’s awards season with so many of these results up in the air, the other major awards ceremonies ended up nearly solidifying all but one or two of the eight major categories. There are usually a couple of shakeups on Oscar night, however – let’s see where they might appear as the messiest Oscars race comes to an end on Sunday.
Best Picture
Predicted Winner: Anora
Sean Baker’s Anora is sporting a Critic’s Choice Award win for Best Picture, alongside top prizes at the Producers’, Writers’, and Directors’ Guild of America awards. Does this mean it’s winning Best Picture? No. But it means it’s statistically unlikely to lose. The last (and only) movie to win these three guild awards and not go on to win Best Picture was Crash in 2005.
Anora isn’t my favorite of the bunch this year – I’m more partial to Baker’s Red Rocket and The Florida Project. But I came to the realization that it’s probably a me thing, and while I did find the film to be very good, I left with a sense of sadness that one could argue Baker had intended me to leave with.
Barely standing in Anora‘s way are Conclave and Emilia Pérez. Conclave‘s win at BAFTA for Best Picture and at SAG for Best Ensemble suggest support from the Academy’s international cohort and acting branch – both of which make up a hefty chunk of voters. The irony of Conclave‘s win would not be lost on me – a dying Pope, a politically-charged election thriller, and a movie about a rotating group of frontrunners vying for a prestigious title who keep having their chances undercut.
I would have bet on Emilia Pérez pre-KSG Twitter fiasco. It’s not unlike The Academy to double down on what they want to vote for – be it a condescending message that they get to tell us what to like, or a misinformed attempt to recognize what they think we do. On its own, Emilia Pérez – I thought – was pretty good, but both its immense praise by industry experts and its eventual hatred by film buffs have both been unwarranted (in my humble opinion).
That leaves a few crowd-pleasing sensations (Dune: Part Two, Wicked, A Complete Unknown), an international darling (I’m Still Here), a landmark body-horror inclusion (The Substance), an intimate yet under-seen entry (Nickel Boys), and a 3.5-hour epic about an immigrant architect (The Brutalist). Of those, I think The Brutalist is the only one with real potential to upset, as it at least has a couple of Golden Globe wins under its belt (not like that matters), as well as commanding industry respect for its technicals and ambition. I don’t think the Oscars are that desperate for ratings to hand the award to Wicked, and Dune: Part Two clearly isn’t getting the respect it deserved.
AJ’s Rankings (AKA my personal preferences)
1. The Brutalist
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Wicked
4. Emilia Pérez
5. Conclave
6. Anora
7. Nickel Boys
8. I’m Still Here
9. A Complete Unknown
10. The Substance
Should Have Been Nominated: Challengers, Didi, Inside Out 2
Best Director
Predicted Winner: Sean Baker, Anora
I have a special place in my heart for movies from my childhood, so seeing the kid who played Alan Tracy in the 2004 action flick Thunderbirds go on to win an Oscar for The Brutalist 20 years later would be unreal. And while I don’t think the relatively young Brady Corbet is completely out of the running for this award, it seems my hopes of an Anora/Brutalist Picture/Director split aren’t likely to happen.
Brady’s BAFTA win in this category could signify the international branch of The Academy will support him, but given the wave of love that seems to be coming Anora’s way, I’ll ride it and predict Baker will win. As someone who wanted him to be included in this category (and preferably win it) seven years ago for The Florida Project, I can’t say I’d be heartbroken if a dedicated filmmaker like Baker won this prize. But for this year, I was just too captivated by what Brady pulled off with The Brutalist to not root for him.
I can’t really see anyone else winning here…but maybe that’s partly because I don’t want anyone else to.
AJ’s Rankings
1. Corbet, The Brutalist
2. Baker, Anora
3. Fargeat, The Substance
4. Audiard, Emilia Pérez
5. Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Should Have Been Nominated: Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two; Ross, Nickel Boys; West, MaXXXine; Berger, Conclave; Mollner, Strange Darling
Best Actor
Predicted Winner: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
I always love a poetic win at the Oscars. Timothée Chalamet winning Best Actor against Adrien Brody – a previous surprise winner who beat out four prior winners to become the youngest Best Actor Winner ever – and taking the award (and that record) away from him would be poetic.
And it’s certainly possible. SAG wins can be flukey, but going into Oscar night, it’s a win on my resume I’d rather have than not. Brody’s resume, however, is nothing to slouch at – he’s won the BAFTA, Golden Globe, and Critics’ Choice Award for his committed work in The Brutalist.
Unlike Best Actress, it’s an uphill battle for a rising Hollywood star to win Best Actor. Austin Butler didn’t bear Brendan Fraser a couple of years ago, and Andrew Garfield didn’t beat Will Smith a couple of years before that. While there’s always an exception to the rule, I’m sticking with Brody.
Domingo and Finnes are fine actors who I’m happy were included here, and Sebastian Stan’s performance as Trump shockingly got him included here. It was good work – but truthfully, it was work I didn’t think would be recognized.
AJ’s Rankings
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
4. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
5. Ralph Finnes, Conclave
Should Have Been Nominated: Keith Kupferer, Ghostlight; Gabrielle Labelle, Saturday Night
Best Actress
Predicted Winner: Mikey Madison, Anora
This one’s the biggest coin toss of the night for me, and for now, I’m slightly leaning towards Mikey’s work as the title character in Anora.
Best Actress is usually more favorable to the rising star, awarding the likes of Jennifer Lawrence, Brie Larson, and Emma Stone in the past decade or so while all were in their 20s. Demi, however, is the comeback performance from a Hollywood starlet. Her picture was divisive – her performance was not. She’s picked up a SAG, Golden Globe, and Critics’ Choice win. Mikey, to her credit, scored at BAFTA and the Independent Spirit Awards. There’s also suspicion of a potential upset from I’m Still Here‘s Fernanda Torres – she also won a Golden Globe, and the love for her Best Picture-nominated film may carry her to a win.
My vote would have likely gone to Demi, but I see all of these women as deserving of the win in their own right. I can’t say I’d be thrown or upset if any of their names were called (well, expect for one of them).
AJ’s Rankings
1. Demi Moore, The Substance
2. Mikey Madison, Anora
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
4. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
5. Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Pérez
Should Have Been Nominated: Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl; Lily-Rose Depp, Nosferatu
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
I’m firmly in the “he’s just doing his thing from Succession” camp, but it’s hard to deny Kieran Culkin’s magnetism on screen. And since no real challenger has emerged, I think his win is the safest acting prediction of the night.
I do wish Jeremy Strong was a more serious contender to his former Succession costar, but like Sebastian Stan, he’s honestly lucky to have been nominated for The Apprentice. Burisov, Norton, and Pearce all give nomination-worthy performances, but their screen time on Oscar night will be relegated to a reaction in a box when Culkin wins.
AJ’s Rankings
1. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
3. Kieran Culkin, Succession A Real Pain
4. Yura Borisov, Anora
5. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Should Have Been Nominated: Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing; Josh O’Conner, Challengers; Gabrielle Labelle, Snack Shack; Jesse Plemons, Civil War
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Pérez
Any hope that Zoe’s competitors may have had that she’d go down with the sinking ship of Emilia Pérez seems to be dashed. Following the backlash against the movie and its lead, Zoe still went on to claim crucial victories from BAFTA and SAG, indicating she remains in the frontrunner spot that she’s had since last fall.
I do think this category is more likely to offer a surprise than Supporting Actor, with various circles championing an Ariana, Monica, and even Isabella win. However, it would have been so easy for Zoe to be swept up in the controversy of her film, but seeing how there’s no indications of that happening, the Oscar is as good as hers.
My vote would in this category easily would have gone to Monica Barbaro for A Complete Unknown. Her mix of charm and frustration opposite Chalamet was the highlight of the film for me.
AJ’s Rankings
1. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
2. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Pérez
3. Ariana Grande, Wicked
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Should Have Been Nominated: Joan Chen, Didi
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Winner: A Real Pain
I’ve missed the mark on this prediction the past couple of years, and I might miss again this time betting against Anora. However, its BAFTA and Independent Spirit Award wins have me thinking it’s the winner. It’s talkier than Anora, and Baker’s film are more feats of editing, acting, and directing than screenwriting in my eyes. And since A Real Pain missed out on a Best Picture nomination, the Academy may want to show it a bit of extra love here.
Still, Anora‘s chances are very much alive here, and I know there are plenty of voters who are passionate about the other nominees here. So while any nominee could take this one, I’m gonna risk my money on A Real Pain.
AJ’s Rankings
1. The Brutalist
2. Anora
3. A Real Pain
4. September 5
5. The Substance
Should Have Been Nominated: Challengers, Snack Shack, Saturday Night, Strange Darling
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Culkin’s win might be the safest acting win of the night, but I think the safest overall win for a major category is Conclave in Adapted Screenplay. It’s the most structured, dialogue-driven, and intentionally perpetual of the bunch. Every scene is with purpose, and from a construction standpoint, I don’t see anything besting it here.
Nickel Boys and Sing Sing were more free-flowing achievements of acting and directing. Candidly, I don’t know how warranted their inclusion in this category is. Emilia Pérez isn’t winning this award, and A Complete Unknown left me with more questions than answers. Conclave is the easiest, safest, and correct choice.
AJ’s Rankings
1. Conclave
2. Sing Sing
3. Emilia Pérez
4. Nickel Boys
5. A Complete Unknown
Should Have Been Nominated: Hit Man, Wicked, Inside Out 2
And now, the rest of my predictions & preferences.
Best Cinematography
Will Win: The Brutalist
Should Win: Dune: Part Two
Best Costume Design
Will Win: Wicked
Should Win: Gladiator II
Best Film Editing
Will Win: Conclave
Should Win: The Brutalist
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: The Substance
Should Win: The Substance
Best Production Design
Will Win: Wicked
Should Win: Dune: Part Two
Best Sound
Will Win: Dune: Part Two
Should Win: Dune: Part Two
Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Dune: Part Two
Should Win: Dune: Part Two
Best Animated Feature
Will Win: The Wild Robot
Should Win: Inside Out 2
Best International Film
Will Win: I’m Still Here
Should Win: Emilia Pérez
Best Score
Will Win: The Brutalist
Should Win: The Brutalist
Best Song
Will Win: “The Journey,” The Six Triple Eight
Should Win: “Mi Camino,” Emilia Pérez
Tallied Predictions
The Brutalist: 3 wins out of 10 nominations
Anora: 3 wins out of 6 nominations
Wicked: 2 wins out of 10 nominations
Conclave: 2 wins out of 8 nominations
Dune: Part Two: 2 wins out of 5 nominations
A Real Pain: 2 wins out of 2 nominations
Emilia Pérez: 1 win out of 13 nominations
The Substance: 1 win out of 5 nominations
The Wild Robot: 1 win out of 3 nominations
I’m Still Here: 1 win out of 3 nominations
The Six Triple Eight: 1 win out of 1 nomination