I know, I know. It’s been too long. Sorry.
Before I jump into my preferences and predictions for the 90th Academy Awards, I thought I’d let you know what I’ve been up to.
For the past couple months, I’ve been working on a new movie podcast with my friend and roommate Charlie Zizza. Charlie and I hosted this show back in college and got the band back together after becoming roommates.
So far, we’ve covered Oscar favorites Phantom Thread and Three Billboards, box office smashes Black Panther and Star Wars: The Last Jedi, and surprise post-Super Bowl drop The Cloverfield Paradox. Make sure you check out The A to Z Movie Show on iTunes for reviews of new movies, modern classics, and our thoughts on some of the biggest news pieces in cinema.
Now to answer the question I know you’re asking: what separates our podcast from the hundreds of other movie podcasts out there? Well, here’s our pitch: Charlie is the average movie goes (representing many of you), while I play the persona of aspiring professional movie critic. Occasionally our opinions clash since we’re speaking for different audiences – which probably explains why Charlie hated The Shape of Water, while I thought it was fantastic.
We think this dynamic of a regular movie consumer challenging the voice of the critic sets our podcast apart from the rest, and we hope you enjoy it! Here’s hoping you give us a listen during your next road trip, commute, or workout. We have our chat while sipping on craft beer and try to have fun with it.
Listen to The A to Z Movie Show on iTunes.
Now on to the Oscar predictions.
Last year, I was pretty vocal about my disdain for 2016’s (lack of) film quality. Aside from a few standouts, I was seriously let down.
This year, I’m relieved to say I loved 2017 in film, which made making both my Top 10 list and my Oscar predictions a lot more difficult this time around.
Below are my predictions and preferences in all the major categories for the 2018 Oscars.
Best Picture
Predicted Winner: Get Out
This will probably be the most controversial prediction on my list, but hear me out.
The Shape of Water didn’t get a Best Ensemble nomination from the SAG Awards, limiting its chance of winning – the last time a movie won Best Picture without this nomination was 1995’s Braveheart. This was the first major warning sign for La La Land last year – it wasn’t recognized by the Screen Actors Guild and ultimately lost Best Picture.
Three Billboards didn’t score a Best Director nomination, and with the exception of Argo, a movie hasn’t pulled of a win for Best Picture without the Best Director nod since Driving Miss Daisy.
This narrows the field down to two movies that have scored nominations for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Cast at the SAGs: Get Out and Lady Bird. Of these two, I would argue Get Out is more socially relevant, more timely, better edited, and better written. Additionally, its maintained momentum for the past twelve months has been wildly impressive. For those reasons, I predict Jordan Peele’s cultural and critical success will see the big win.
Statistically, Get Out has its own disadvantages. Its low number of nominations and nonexistent Best Editing nod don’t exactly solidify its win, but the Oscars are different than any other awards show. Why is that?
Well, with nine films nominated this year – including underdog Darkest Hour and surprise favorite Phantom Thread – I wouldn’t be shocked for smaller films like these to take away votes from bigger contenders. All that said, I’m confident with my prediction here.
Looking at the category as a whole, only three films in my Top 10 got nominations this year. The only film I can say I didn’t like of these noms is Three Billboards, which still has a reasonable chance of winning.
🙁
AJ’s Rankings (aka my preferences):
1. Get Out
2. Dunkirk
3. The Shape of Water
4. Lady Bird
5. Call Me By Your Name
6. Phantom Thread
7. Darkest Hour
8. The Post
9. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Have Been Nominated: The Florida Project, Baby Driver, I, Tonya
Best Director
Predicted Winner: Del Toro, The Shape of Water
In a very, very packed year for behind-the-camera talent, Del Toro has emerged as the favorite to win. I’ll stick with the industry prediction because I wouldn’t even be able to guess who would take it home instead. Maybe the Academy tries to save face and act progressive, meaning Greta Gerwig spoils in the wake of the #TimesUp movement? We’ll see, but I wouldn’t count on it.
The biggest surprise on this list? PTA – especially since he took Martin McDonagh’s supposedly locked spot. In a dream world, it would have gone to Sean Baker instead for his beautiful work in The Florida Project.
AJ’s Rankings:
1. Nolan, Dunkirk
2. Del Toro, The Shape of Water
3. Peele, Get Out
4. Gerwig, Lady Bird
5. Anderson, Phantom Thread
Should Have Been Nominated: Baker, The Florida Project; Bigelow, Detroit
Best Actress
Predicted Winner: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
In case you couldn’t tell by now, I’m not the biggest Three Billboards fan. Now don’t get me wrong – Frances did extremely well in this movie. Everything from her line delivery down to her facial expressions are exactly why she’s named a front runner – I just think the screenplay let her down.
However, I look at what Sally Hawkins was able to do in The Shape of Water. I think of how much joy, levity, and depth she brought to a character with no words, especially since half of her interactions were with a CGI fish man. I’d love to see her pull out a surprise win, but it looks like McDormand would be wise to clear a spot on her shelf for Oscar #2 next weekend.
I’d also like to take this time to commend Marogt Robbie for her performance as Tonya Harding and being the face of tragedy, competition, and determination in this year’s I, Tonya.
Overall, I’m impressed by everyone’s performances in this category this year, and I think they’re all worthy of their nominations. That said, I’d have loved a surprise nomination for Wind River’s Elizabeth Olsen in her best performance since Martha Marcy May Marlene.
AJ’s Rankings:
1. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
2. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
4. Meryl Streep, The Post
5. Saorsie Ronan, Lady Bird
Should Have Been Nominated: Elizabeth Olsen, Wind River
Best Actor
Predicted Winner: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
In a career spanning from an imposing Russian hijacker to Sirius Black, it’s a shame it has taken this long for Gary Oldman to get his recognition from the Academy. That said, it’ll be very satisfying to see him finally hold his Oscar this Sunday. Everyone else in the category can sit pretty while Oldman’s name is called – especially Daniel Kaluuya, whose nomination surprised me the most.
AJ’s Rankings:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Also Nominated: Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Should Have Been Nominated: James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Winner: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
By no means is this my favorite of Allison Janney’s cinematic turns, so I’ll just have to take solace in it being a career award, much like Gary Oldman. I don’t think we can expect a win from anyone else on the list – perhaps a shocker from Laurie Metcalf?
Personally, I’m rooting for Lesley Manville, but I think her nomination is a victory enough for quite an underrated performance in Phantom Thread.
Also, I genuinely have no idea why Mary J. Blige or Octavia Spencer are on the list.
AJ’s Rankings:
1. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya
3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Should Have Been Nominated: Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!; Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Winner: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
I love Sam Rockwell! But not in this movie. I thought he was easily bested by Woody Harrelson, who brought much more emotional depth to a character in the same film, and by Dafoe and Jenkins. While I haven’t seen All the Money in the World, I can only imagine the world’s reaction if a man who filmed his scenes with no prep three weeks before a movie’s release won an Oscar.
Having just rewatched The Florida Project last night, I speak with full confidence that this award should go to Willem Dafoe. Instead, it’ll likely go to the water park owner from The Way Way Back.
AJ’s Rankings:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
2. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
3. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
4. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Also Nominated: Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Should have been nominated: Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Winner: Call Me By Your Name
A pretty weak category has all but secured a win for Call Me By Your Name. The competition from traditional Oscar-bait titles was so lightweight that a James Franco comedy and a superhero movie both got Oscar nominations for screenwriting – both oddities for the Academy.
My pick? I’d cast my vote for Mudbound, but when it comes down to two period pieces with equally timely messages, the mainstream release will probably win over Netflix.
AJ’s Rankings:
1. Mudbound
2. Call Me By Your Name
3. The Disaster Artist
4. Logan
Also Nominated: Molly’s Game
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Winner: Get Out
Aside from Best Picture, this is the toughest major category to predict. Get Out, Lady Bird, and Three Billboards all have a legitimate chance of winning.
Again, I lean towards Get Out, as I’m clinging to its Best Picture chances, and with its WGA win over Lady Bird, it seems this may be Peele’s Oscar.
But if awards season has shown anything so far, it’s not to underestimate Three Billboards.
Vomit.
Preference-wise, I’m thrilled to see The Big Sick get recognized and equally disappointed to see the weakest aspect of The Shape of Water – its screenplay – be recognized with a nod.
AJ’s Rankings:
1. Get Out
2. The Big Sick
3. Lady Bird
4. The Shape of Water
5. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Have Been Nominated: Baby Driver, Wind River, Detroit
And now, the rest of the nominees for feature film…
Best Cinematography
Prediction: Blade Runner 2049
Preference: Blade Runner 2049
Best Costume Design
Prediction: Beauty and the Beast
Preference: Beauty and the Beast
Best Film Editing
Prediction: Dunkirk
Preference: Baby Driver
Best Production Design
Prediction: The Shape of Water
Preference: The Shape of Water
Best Original Score
Prediction: The Shape of Water
Preference: Dunkirk
Best Sound Editing
Prediction: Dunkirk
Preference: Baby Driver
Best Sound Mixing
Prediction: Baby Driver
Preference: Baby Driver
Best Visual Effects
Prediction: Blade Runner 2049
Preference: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Animated Feature
Prediction: Coco
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Prediction: Darkest Hour
Best Original Song
Prediction: Remember Me (Coco)
Tallied Predictions
The Shape of Water: 3 wins out of 13 nominations
Get Out: 2 wins out of 4 nominations
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri: 2 wins out of 7 nominations
Coco: 2 wins out of 2 nominations
Dunkirk: 2 wins out of 8 nominations
Darkest Hour: 2 wins out of 4 nominations
Blade Runner 2049: 2 wins out of 5 nominations
Call Me By Your Name: 1 win out of 4 nominations
I, Tonya: 1 win out of 3 nominations
Baby Driver: 1 win out of 3 nominations
Beauty and the Beast: 1 win out of 2 nominations